Their outfield makes for a strong foundation now that the deadwood has been cleared. Vernon Wells and Alex Rios are locked up with long-term contracts, 24-year-old Adam Lind hit .296/.329/.463 after languishing in Triple-A until late June and 20-year-old top prospect Travis Snider zipped from High-A to the majors in one year, performing well in September. If the Jays are buyers, dealing Rios, Lind or Snider for starting pitching is their best bet. Closer B.J. Ryan, who's got two years and $20 million left on his contract, should be dealt if they're selling; the Jays can anoint another closer from within as they did with Jeremy Accardo when Ryan went down in 2007.

What Do They Need?

Despite 86 wins and the fourth-best run differential in the majors, all the Jays got was this lousy T-shirt commemorating the best fourth-place team of the wild-card era. As they retool for 2009 what they need most is an honest answer to the paramount question of whether they can credibly attempt to overcome at least two of the three teams above them. The Jays led the majors in ERA and SNLVAR, with Roy Halladay, Burnett, Jesse Litsch and Shaun Marcum ranking among the league's top 21 in the latter. The problem is that unit is no longer intact; Burnett opted for free agency and Marcum will miss 2009 due to Tommy John surgery. A pair of pitchers recovering from shoulder surgeries, Casey Janssen and Dustin McGowan, can't be counted on to fill the gap. Meanwhile their offense finished 11th in the league in scoring thanks to key injuries and dubious decisions regarding early-season playing time. First base (punch-and-judy hitter Lyle Overbay), shortstop (John McDonald and Marco Scutaro), and third base (aging, oft-injured Scott Rolen) could all use upgrades, though the $26 million remaining on Rolen's deal makes him virtually immovable.

What Are They Likely To Do?

GM J.P. Ricciardi isn't known for biding his time; even with the security of a three-year extension and his team's long odds he's likely to try keeping the Jays in their nominally competitive stasis. They'll compete for Burnett once he hits the open market, though going dollar for dollar with the Yankees, Red Sox and others is risky with the Canadian dollar having plummeted. They could go after Ben Sheets or Canadian Ryan Dempster, but they will both cost plenty of American dollars, too. On the offensive side they're interested in Rafael Furcal, though it could take a four-year deal to land a shortstop who missed most of 2008 and was only effective during about half of his expiring three-year pact. Giambi's name has come up as well in the context of a DH upgrade.

What Should They Do?

Notwithstanding Ricciardi's intransigence, there's a lot to suggest that the Jays should consider selling rather than buying this winter. Overbay might make an adequate stopgap for a team like the Mariners, who played Miguel Cairo extensively there last year, or the Yankees if they can't land Teixeira. Ryan is a very marketable commodity who fits a team unwilling to meet Francisco Rodriguez's asking price. As sellers any free agents signed should be done either with an eye toward resuscitating value -- buying cheap on a Brad Penny or Freddy Garcia coming off injury -- with the possible goal of flipping them at the trading deadline. On the other hand, if they can re-sign Burnett on reasonable terms (stop laughing!), then hoping for the best with Furcal and better luck in the injury department is somewhat defensible if not advisable. From this vantage it doesn't look like the Jays' year, and they're better off building for the future.

Baltimore Orioles

What Do They Have?

The O's are loaded with veterans entering the final year of their contracts, many having rebounded to pushed their values higher than they might ever be again. Aubrey Huff, 32, put up his best year since his 2002-04 heyday; he could peel off a Tampa Bay prospect given their DH needs. Melvin Mora, 37, is coming off his best season since 2005, though his no-trade clause complicates dealing him. Ramon Hernandez, 33, is a credible catching solution in a thin market; perhaps Detroit or Boston would bite. GM Andy MacPhail needs to seize the day and turn these solid components into prospects and youngsters who can be part of the next winning Orioles club. That's most imperative when it comes to 31-year-old Brian Roberts, also in his final year. Last year's Hot Stove circuit was abuzz with Roberts-related trade gossip, but he's still an Oriole because he's a favorite of meddlesome owner Peter Angelos. MacPhail could do as well dealing him as he did in last winter's Erik Bedard heist (which netted Adam Jones, closer George Sherrill -- another trade candidate -- and three young arms), but he needs the green light.

What Do They Need?

If the Jays should look beyond 2009, the same goes doubly for the 68-win Orioles, who employed the fifth-oldest lineup in the league, one in which only Jones and Nick Markakis were on the right side of 30. For far too long the O's have been in denial about their plight, which now extends to 11 straight losing seasons. A typical winter's patchwork involves trying to get them to 75 wins, a level that the Orioles have actually reached just once in this millennium. This only forestalls a more extensive rebuilding effort; they need to face the music and clean house. Take the rotation -- please. The unit's ERA as a whole was an MLB-worst 5.51, and Jeremy Guthrie was the only member with at least a dozen starts and an ERA below 5.25; in that light perpetually maddening Daniel Cabrera starts to make sense because of his ability to eat innings. The Orioles need another arm or two to stabilize a corps of not-so-young and none-too-effective pitchers like Radhames Liz and Garret Olsen, but they shouldn't overpay for name-brand studs on long-term deals, because they're a couple of years away from a credible run at .500, let alone the division flag. Paging Odalis Perez....

What Are They Likely To Do?

The Orioles would dearly love to pursue Maryland native Teixeira, and given their past history of signing free agents who are headed toward their twilight to long, expensive deals, the rumor that they're serious about Manny Ramirez makes some sense. Not in a good way, mind you. More likely, MacPhail will build on the positive example of Bedard's strong return and move those that need to be moved, including Roberts. Quite frankly it's difficult to believe that he would still want this job if he doesn't have the power to make the best deal out there to further the rebuilding effort. Then again this team didn't post 11 straight losing seasons by accident.

What Should They Do?

Along with moving the aforementioned players going into their final contract years the Orioles should consider investing in their defense, which ranked ninth in PADE. As the Rays showed, improving the infield defense can do wonders for the development of a pitching staff. A strong defensive shortstop, even if he's an offensive zero -- free agents Cesar Izturis and Adam Everett come to mind -- is a route worth considering, particularly for a team that saw its raw Defensive Efficiency drop by over 30 points in the second half while finishing the year with the execrable Juan Castro at short. Glove men come cheaper than hitters, either on the open market or in trade, and they're a low-cost means of keeping runs off the board for a team desperately in need of same.